Introduction
For the first time since the end of World War II and the Cold War getting recessed in 1991, the world is contending with three conflicts playing out simultaneously in three continents. The Russia-Ukraine War the first war in Europe since World War II. The conflict in West Asia namely the Israel – Gaza War following the Hamas attack on 07 October 2023 which has expanded to include Lebanon and Hezbollah, Iran and its proxies. There have been attacks by Houthi’s on both Israel and international shipping through the Red Sea. In Syria the sudden fall of the Assad rule, following this a myriad of players supported by various external actors have emerged with the current rule being in the hands of HTS which owes its origin to the Al Qaeda. Further Israel is taking advantage of the flux by occupying areas in the buffer zone and capturing Mount Hermon.
This apart there are lingering tensions in the East and South China Sea, where an expansionist China under President Xi has its eyes on Taiwan whom it wants to absorb into China.
Each of them individually has the ability to shape or reshape the world order whereas collectively they definitely have the profound implications on the spectre of unipolarity or some semblance of bi-multipolarity which we have seen since the emergence of China.
In these unending, long, drawn-out conflicts, new paradigms of warfighting are emerging along with possible countermeasures. Future wars will increasingly be dominated by precision weapons and powerful algorithms. These may solidify into principles and define theories of warfighting in the future which will also include those to do with nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons which were used once to ‘end a war’ were then used throughout the cold war to ‘deter a conflict’ are now ‘nuclear deterrence has been turned on its head’ by President Putin and its threatened use is being used to provide ‘the strategic space to undertake conventional operations’.
Coupled with this is the emergence of a loose alliance of nuclear and quasi-nuclear states, including China, North Korea, Pakistan and Iran, to India’s North there is an emerging convergence of interests which will be India biggest security dilemma in the coming decade and pose a challenge for Indian strategic planners to deal with.
India’s Immediate Neighbours
China has unsettled land borders with both India and Bhutan. The PLA has a belligerent history, marked by aggression against India in 1962. Though there has been progress on the standoff in Ladakh since May 2020 resulting in an Agreement on patrolling. But there have been unilateral Chinese attempts at salami-slicing in the Eastern Sector in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.
Apart from its direct confrontation with India it is also dominating India’s immediate neighbourhood, by all means including economic and as a result Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives apart from Pakistan which is already in close concert with China have seen an increase in Chinese presence and activities. The aggressive Chinese deployment and prolonged face-off in Ladakh further rekindled the focus on the collusive threat posed by China and Pakistan.
Pakistan today is going through one of its darkest periods, the year 2024 witnessed the highest number of terrorist attacks in the last ten years. The latest wave of militant raids in KP and Balochistan being a grim reminder of the resurgence of the menace with greater ferocity. The emerging nexus between what is being described as Talibanism and sectarianism is visible. There is growing political instability and to top it all its economic woes continue to surmount with it now being reduced to asking for aid to clear its interest payments.
The political landscape of South Asia has been turbulent, with significant political shifts in countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives. Bangladesh has seen the ouster of a democratically elected government; the fundamentalists are back in the driver’s seat and minorities are being targeted. In Myanmar a civil war has been ongoing since 2121 and rebel groups have seized control of key areas which the military are struggling to reclaim and are facing increasing setbacks. For the coup leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, 2024 has been yet another humiliating defeat after a year of military setbacks. For the first time his regime has lost control of an entire border: the 270km (170 miles) dividing Myanmar from Bangladesh now wholly under Arakan Army control.
India’s smaller neighbours tend to punch way above their weight when it comes to dealing with India and at times roughshod India’s interests and come out with pronouncements that seem like a threat, mixed with aggression?
Conclusion
The year gone by was characterized by conflicts and sharpening divisions within people. While one looks with hope at the coming year the largely unseen dynamic unfolding on to India’s North needs to be more acutely observed. The China- Pakistan – Iran – North Korea friendship and subsequent nuclear spectrum is full of strategic risks and instabilities, posing a concerning threat.
Today long-drawn-out conflicts with indeterminate objectives are emerging as the new normal. Hence, the complex interplay of conventional and non-conventional strategies in a nuclear environment makes India’s security distinct. China’s regional dominance also shows no signs of abating, while the global security landscape continues to change in multiple ways.
We need to identify, confront and deal with these challenges and thereafter have the ability to surmount them. Though presently all may not be within our immediate consciousness but will have a germane bearing on our national security dilemmas in the years ahead.
