Introduction
Wars were easy to define but now most countries do not know when they are at war and with whom they are engaging in conflict. This is because kinetic means are no longer the dominant tool in imposing a nation’s will.
Ever since President Trump returned to power this has been even more evident and he has not distinguished between friends and foes as he concentrates on reshaping the world and is no longer willing to underwrite the expenses.
The policy shifts include territorial claims and economic threats. He has expressed a desire to make Canada the 51st state, annex Greenland, and the Panama Canal and get Gaza Strip under direct American control. Apart from that he has cut the tap as far as supplies to Ukraine go and has shown Europe a mirror as regards the US underwriting their security bill. He has also expanded his trade offensive against China, Canada and Mexico.
A Historical Precedence
While they maybe a sense of alarm the fact is that during the Cold War, the US resorted to economic coercion against allies. While administrations differed from Trump in tone, but the message of the threats was often similar: follow US policy or face serious economic damage.
In 1948, the Truman administration threatened to suspend the Marshall Plan from the Netherlands unless they abandoned their counterinsurgency against the Indonesian nationalist movement.
The Suez crisis in 1956, again demonstrated strong US economic pressure. Eisenhower made it clear the US would no longer support Britain’s postwar economy unless it halted its attack. He told British Prime Minister Anthony Eden pointedly that “if you don’t get out of Port Said tomorrow, I’ll cause a run on the pound and drive it down to zero.”
In the 1970s, when South Korean President Park Chung Hee pursued a nuclear weapons program, the Ford administration used threats to freeze US government lending and reconsider its security relationship with South Korea.
During his first term, Trump imposed ” sanctions against Iran’s and Venezuela’s oil exports. Sanctions were also passed against North Korea, and Russia in 2017 and the US initiated an economic assault on Huawei, ZTE, and other Chinese tech giants.
In 2019, the US used sanctions to force Turkey, a fellow NATO member, to rein in its proxies fighting US backed Kurdish forces in Syria.
Tarrifs the New Tool of War
Tariffs are another visible part of this new strategic approach. By imposing tariffs on countries that do not align closely with Washington’s priorities, the US has effectively raised the price of entering the American market. If countries want a lower price, then they must also lower the barriers that prevent American businesses from fairly competing in and taking advantage of market opportunities on their own turf. And if this is not possible, then other concessions in the strategic and national security domains must be made.
The US is pressurising Mexico into tightening border security by threatening tariffs if American demands were not met. The other case being the much talked about critical minerals deal with Ukraine where the US is seeking key resources in return for continued strategic support.
The message is clear: if you want access to US markets, you must be willing to strike what President Trump considers a fair deal, whether it pertains to trade, economics, or national security.
The size of the US market gives commercial threats potency particularly against countries who are completely dependent on the US for trade.
But on the obverse, tariffs can be detrimental, unless own domestic production is cheaper than the goods imported with enhanced tariffs. This will only drive up inflation with the bill being paid by the consumers.
Conclusion
The Trump administration sees access to American markets, capital, and security as a point of leverage through which the US can and must demand certain strategic and economic concessions from both friends and foes.
As per the current dispensation for far too long, adversaries and allies alike have been taking advantage of the US. America has now decided that it must change its strategic approach and be much more transactional and ruthless in its dealings.
The foundational belief driving this shift is that access to their market and the broader international system aligned with the US is a privilege cannot be taken as a right. The fact is that the tools of waging war are getting harder to define.
