Within a matter of minutes, 45 to be precise on 05 August Sheikh Hasina who had been Prime Minister for over fifteen years was given an ultimatum to leave the country by the Army Chief. The pillars of governance namely democracy and institutions both seemed to have been swept away in the face of protests by students regarding the reservations for the descendants of freedom fighters. A few days later the Supreme Court also came under siege and the Chief Justice Obaidul Hasan was forced to resign.But they were also hidden undercurrents at play that contributed to her ouster and fingers are being pointed at the US, China and of course the ISI.
In surreal scenes, brought back memories of Colombo and Kabul as protesters wandered through the rooms of the Prime Minister’s residence in, Dhaka, lounging on its furniture, posing for photos, and stealing anything they could get their hands on including her pet dog and cat.
Hasina’s downfall comes soon after Bangladesh had been celebrated for globalization and development, with the economy growing briskly, incomes on the rise, and various social indicators moving in positive directions. But Covid and the Ukraine War changed the economic indicators
The protests in Dhaka turned into riots when the High Court decided to reinstate the quota system, which reserved 56 per cent of government jobs for certain groups, amongst which the largest chunk was reserved for the descendants of the 1971 freedom fighters who won the war of independence from Pakistan. Though the Supreme Court subsequently suspended the High Court order and scheduled a hearing for August 7, 2024, the protests escalated into violence, leaving over 200 dead and thousands in jail. The pressure built up with the protests becoming political, and forces that opposed Sheikh Hasina seeing an opportunity for a regime change were activated.
The abiding weaknesses came to the fore, including widening economic disparities, high youth unemployment, and dissatisfaction with the government and economy fuelled protests that erupted in Dhaka in early July before spreading around the country. The suppression of the protests and killings then revealed the fundamentally brittle nature of Hasina’s regime.
Secularism which the Awami League stood for was now being targeted and there are increasing reports of Hindus being killed and Temples being vandalised. In fact, the statue of the surrender ceremony just over fifty years ago was also destroyed. Looking back, Bangabandhu was assassinated along with most of his family members barely four years after the birth of Bangladesh by a section of his own Army, and the ensuing politics of the country often took Bangladesh far away from the stated goals of the Liberation War.
Begum Khaleeda Zia was released from prison the next day her party the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) when it came to power in 2001, tore up the secular fabric of the nation with violence against minorities. The other party the Jamaat-e-Islami is seen as even more radical, in its earlier avatar as Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan had opposed the very independence of Bangladesh. An interim government has been now sworn in led by Muhammed Yunus the Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist and it also has two members from the protesting students.
At 4096 kms Bangladesh is India’s longest land border, hence a lot depends on good relations between the two countries. There are numerous issues relating to trade, developmental and infrastructure projects, sharing of river waters and security concerns regarding harbouring of extremists, infiltration, trading in drugs, as well as the connectivity with regards to the North East and as part of India’s look East policy.
In the last 15 years, Hasina rebuilt roads linking Dhaka with Kolkata and Agartala that were severed after 1947. She built bridges, re-established railway links and facilitated easy access of cargo ships on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries, bringing the two countries closer, a petroleum pipeline was also recently made functional and there were power agreements. Security cooperation increased between India and Bangladesh and Hasina with Bangladesh refusing to provide safe refuge to rebels from across the border. All this is at stake but India’s primary concern today is the safety and security of the minorities in Bangladesh.
Uprisings may succeed in bringing down a structure but there now remains an uncertainty regarding the shape and form of a new structure as well as the strength of its foundation.
