Introduction
Battles of the past have been won through a combination of attrition and manoeuvre. However, it is the ‘degradation’ of the adversary that remains a major and decisive war-wining factor. As modernisation brings in new concepts of warfighting, the contact battles are likely to transform dramatically, since these involve enormous human effort and risk.
Technology will ensure that soldiers in the frontline are more at ease, have better protective and survival equipment and have enhanced situational awareness. ‘Manned borders’ would be supplemented, if not completely replaced with ‘smart borders’, giving the border guarding units sufficient time to react and defend a piece of territory under threat. Soldiers would be more mobile, and supported with autonomous weapons and systems having a capability of first response.
Similarly, the Commanders at all levels would get adequate warning with meshed intelligence that would give a continuous situational awareness and creating a common operating picture. The Command and Control (C2) Rooms will be reconfigured for autonomous operations where Mosaic warfare shall become a possibility. The Data Centres would be multifunctional yet distributed. The forward troops would need deep support on one end, yet their high battle field awareness in their areas of interest should bring focus on tactical decisions and actions.
The Future of Tanks
Tanks would be empowered with massively enhanced situational awareness sensors, high-speed electro-hybrid drive and mounted laser emitters. Developments in light, high-capacity batteries will play as much a part in light, effective armour. The technology is becoming available to take a very different approach to MBT design using advanced materials, novel automotive systems, new weapon systems and active protection systems, resulting in much lighter, more agile platforms. “There will always be the issue of affordability and robustness that comes with increased complexity, as these advanced solutions must be able to operate reliably in all environments and be resilient to all types of terrain and threat. ”The Tank Boats” concept based on the Indonesia model would be highly effective for beach operations and also for defending territories based on lakes such as Pangong Tso lake. The weapon system has the base of a boat and hull and turret of a tank.
Stealth technologies and novel drive systems that reduce engine heat signatures could also enhance survivability without the need to build on more metal, by making tomorrow’s tanks and AFVs harder to detect and more difficult to hit. The future battlefield would see unmanned armoured ground vehicles playing their part as we target greater automation which has made it possible for drones to have remotely controlled unmanned turrets. This trend is likely to continue grow towards deployment a ground swarm of drone vehicles in support of conventional MBTs and AFVs.
The Infantry Soldier
An Infantry Soldier, would be armed with light, wearable surveillance and weapon controlling devices. He would have the option of firing a weapon himself or directing a weapon system to fire which is deployed in offset / mounted configuration. These weapons would have the capability of firing steerable bullets and projectiles.
Robotic systems are likely to be an important part of the mix of future ground-based warfighting capabilities and key contributors to reducing the risks to troops by improving sensing and targeting, reducing the danger of collateral damage. The boots on ground would reduce as gradually the robotics and AI powered soldiers shall replace human involvement. There will, however, be a need for some ‘boots on the ground’ in case there is a need to interact with the local population.
All engagement decisions will have a ‘human in the loop’ hence these would employ highly controlled autonomous weapons’. Lasers and energy weapons could well become an important part of the whole defensive system. An Infantry soldier would have a luxury of assigning a robot buddy a more dangerous task of delivering a kinetic punch from a more exposed position. Robot buddies could be assigned to surveillance and vanguard duties. Soldiers would increasingly be equipped with Artificial Intelligent wearables and implants that would increase awareness and give them mental and physical augmentation.
Special Forces (SF) need to achieve undetected penetration behind enemy lines. Carry out stealth operations for a prolonged period to include recce and direction action tasks and exfiltrate rapidly. The Western armies are trying Flyboard Air insertion which is still in the trial stage but seems promising. The Delta Force used a deadly combination of strategic electronic surveillance, snipers and drones armed with hellfire missiles to eliminate Iran’s most powerful military commander Qassem Soleimani. Mossad in the recent operations became more ingenious in eliminating the Hezbollah Commanders in Lebanon through pager and radio attacks. SF carries out the most dangerous missions in the world, increasingly in hybrid scenarios, and would need to rapidly switch to high technology for high impact and low signature operations that guarantees mission success and high survivability.
Artillery
Artillery would improve Recce Surveillance and Target Acquisition (RSTA) by automation providing the Army with exceptional battlefield capabilities, both by day and night. Satellites and UAVs have revolutionised RSTA. Precision Guidance Munition (PGM) Also called smart weapons, smart munitions, smart bombs would precisely hit a specific target. Long-range, quick response, surface-to-surface Tactical Missile Systems would be effective, against mobile and other targets and would gradually replace guns.
This would include the Brilliant Anti-Armour/Tank (BAT) submunition. The self-guided, anti-armour Javelin missile’s success was due to the two-dimensional arrays which made the missile’s seeker almost fool proof. Other developments in inertial navigation are the Precision Inertial Navigation Systems (PINS), Micro inertial navigation technology (MINT) and Chip-scale atomic clock program (CSAC). PINS is an effort to address the vulnerabilities of GPS.
The US Army has developed Precision Guidance Kit (PGK) and Excalibur, as well as the Advanced Precision Mortar Initiative (APMI—GPS guidance for 120 mm mortars) and the Very Affordable Precision Projectile (VAPP) to increase precision strike. The PGK replaces the fuse in the nose of conventional 155-mm artillery. PGK provides a Circular Error of Probability of 50 m for all ranges, depending on the type of ammunition being fired. PGMs need a reliable power supply thus another area of development is to provide reliable and small sized batteries which have a long shelf life. The future PGM would be able to operate in any environment, with or without GPS and be able to change the type of explosion to match the target.
The Indian Army (IA) is procuring Raytheon Missile developed M982 Excalibur precision-guided artillery shells from the US. These 155 mm/52-cal shells will be used for M-777 field howitzers and the K-9 Vajra self-propelled howitzers. Excalibur is considered as a true precision weapon, impacting at a radial miss distance of less than two meters from the target. Indian Army in the past utilized the Russian Krasnopol 155 mm laser-guided shells. For area targets, a torrent of inexpensive shells provides for a variety of weapons and shell types.
GPS guided artillery shells are probably more suitable for larger calibre weapons where their low rate of fire would be compensated for with first shot precision, but for lighter weapons where rate of fire can compensate for the lighter projectile, precision will mean they can engage more targets. Shaped charges tend to derive their penetration from their diameter, so a 155 mm /52 calibre is better at penetrating than a smaller calibre. Smaller circuit cards and enhanced shock protection for electronics made guidance achievable for the M 982 Excalibur artillery shell.
PGM’s
Missiles can be used for better accuracy such as ‘Beyond line-of-sight’ fire. Missiles in the canister, can be vertically launched, with a command and control system in a box. It can be mounted on a truck, or set up on the ground. The Non-Line-of-Sight Launch System (NLOS-LS) can be utilized in the Unmanned Surface Vehicle or in the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship. NLOS-LS has two missiles, first, a Precision Attack Missile (PAM) with high speed to hit targets at maximum range. The second one would be a Loitering Attack Missile (LAM), equipped with laser detection and ranging (“Ladar”) seeker, can achieve a range of 70 Kms and then a 30-minute loiter time. It is able to loiter over targets of interest, do automatic target recognition and attack targets on its own.
Lethality and precision is also enhanced with more advanced systems such as Explosively formed jets (EFJ) and self-forging penetrators (SFP) used for precision strike against targets such as armoured vehicles and reinforced structures. The Magneto Hydrodynamic Explosive Munition (MAHEM) programme can achieve higher efficiency by using a compressed magnetic flux generator (CMFG) – driven magneto hydro-dynamically formed metal jets and SFP with significantly improved performance over EFJ. To enhance the rapid-fire capability of an artillery shell, Multi-Azimuth Defence — Fast Intercept Round Engagement System (MAD-FIRES) would combine precision and manoeuvrability to alter their flight path in real time to stay on target and a capacity to continuously target, track and engage multiple fast-approaching targets simultaneously and re-engage any targets that survive initial engagement. High Explosive Guided Mortar (HEGM) provides integral indirect fire mortar munitions to Infantry and Special Operations units. The XM395 will engage targets as close as 500m-6,500m threshold and 1,000 m-15000m objective. Some more examples of current PGMs are:-
a. M712 Copperhead. This has a laser guided projectile, fired from a 155mm gun with a maximum range of 16 km. Copperhead operates in two modes. Ballistic and Glide modes depending on the visibility.
b. M898 155mm Sense and Destroy Armour (SADARM). The shell has a nose-mounted M762/ M767 fuse set to burst at 1,000 m above the target for releasing two SADARM submunitions, ejected from the projectile with the help of parachutes. Each sensor with the submunitions has a milli-meter radiometer which scans an area of 150m in diameter, tracks and guides the submunition onto the target.
c. XM395 Precision Guided Mortar Munition (PGMM) combines GPS guidance and directional control, transforming existing 120mm mortar bombs into PGMs with a CEP of 5m at a range of 7000m.
Attack Helicopters
Attack Helicopters (AH) are considered as the manoeuvre arm of the Army. AHs are also referred to as flying Battle Tanks or the third dimensional armour and are incrementally adding high speeds, agility and protection. They are armed with mixed arsenal such as guided missiles, rockets, cannons and guns shooting at rapid and cyclical rates. They have excellent surveillance, navigation, protection and communication systems on board. Apache AH-64E (I) helicopters have been recently inducted into the IAF, has the fastest rate of climb making it more agile in the battlefield with the ability to fight in Altitudes upto 21000 ft.
The AH-64E is an advanced multi-mission helicopter with the latest technology insertions, maintaining its standing as the world’s best attack helicopter. Suitable to be employed against China’s WZ-10 which has a slower rate of climb, a disadvantage in steep mountain ranges of Aksai Chin – Eastern Ladakh area. The nearest comparable AH with AH-64E(I) is the Russian Ka 52 kamov. Kamov 50/52 is more suited for lower hills/ plains with marginally higher speed and range than AH-64.
Future Wars
Protracted Engagements would be a norm in Hybrid war scenarios. The planned war stamina shall be challenged. Contrary to the belief that there would be short and intense wars, Russian- Ukraine War is well into the third year, while the Hamas – Israel- Lebanon War is into the second year. There would be few periods of peace due to fatigueless intervention by technology in military and public life.
Security agencies and systems would need round the clock vigil in all spheres. Due to the continuous state of security alerts, nations, if not already engaged, would need to remain prepared for war. This perpetual engagement could mount expenses and make warfare unaffordable and unsustainable. Nations would have no option but devising means to fight economical wars. That is how sub-conventional and Hybrid Wars came to being a ‘Low cost option’.
Even though future warfare would have contact battles, but there would be a mix of non- battles as well. All weapons would add lethality, accuracy, and range. Tanks, Artillery guns and drones would be all pervasive, inter-connected, made lighter, amphibious, multi terrain/ multidimensional, autonomous with high precision strike capability. Heavy armour would be replaced with Active Protection Systems that can destroy or mitigate incoming fire, or use novel materials that combine high protection with low weight, thereby boosting vehicle speed and agility.
Unmanned and Autonomous vehicles, aircraft and ships would see a larger role in the battlefield. The pilotless, driver less or crew less fighting machines would be pervasive. The control stations of these machines could be located underground and far away from the War Zone. Such machines would be remotely controlled through secure and stable cable, radio and satellite communication which are uninterruptible, reliable and instant.
The ranges or the radius of action and stamina of these machines would be enhanced through efficient power of hybrid engines requiring low maintenance or charging. The warheads could be Kinetic, High Energy or Radiological. Nuclear power would run engines in miniature plants that would empower these killing machines. These vehicles could be light in weight, smaller in size yet having the ability to carry on themselves disproportionate loads. The rearming and refuelling, if and when required, could be executed through an autonomous logistic support system.
Drones and Hypersonic missiles are the two major disrupters in the modern warfare. Both are being used selectively to degrade targets with precision and surprise. The Counter – drone and counter hypersonic technologies are struggling to ensure to create a new defence shield. Therefore, a combine of space, cyber, drones and hypersonic technology are the new entrants in the MDO (Multi Domain Operations).
The ultimate destruction shall be caused by the firepower that is more lethal, accurate and decisive. The Command and control would be shifting into digital control and networks that would make the wars smatter, yet these systems can be compromised and therefore need a secure shield.
Lt Gen (Dr) PJS Pannu, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) is a former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff. He commanded 14 Corps in Ladakh. He was also the Director General of Infantry. He pioneered the raising of Defence Space Agency, Defence Cyber Agency and Armed Forces Special Forces Division. He is currently Senior advisor to Satcom Industries Association (SIA-India) and FICCI chair for ICT modernization for Defence and He is also a National Cyber Security Scholar for ISAC. He has a Doctorate on Indigenization of Defence Industry.
