In March this year, President Putin announced a major escalation of the war in Ukraine, with the threat to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal- the largest in the world, that could destroy the world many times over – if his actions were challenged in Ukraine. The US, NATO and European nations were initially shocked. Even though they do know that nuclear weapons are most unlikely to be used in a hurry. These are weapons of last resort.
Although Mr Putin carries a briefcase – a communication tool that can connect Putin to all his top military Commanders – he knows that once a nuclear attack is launched then there’ll be no looking back. Nukes could be used only if Russia’s existence is under threat by a US led NATO military invasion. And since the West has watched Russia’s botched up invasion, they’ll continue with the strategy of giving support to Ukraine by proxy supplies and soldiers exhaust Russian troops and their resources, but not escalate things further, unless Kyiv is to fall.
Is it Nuclear Blackmail?
Putin’s threat came, only days before he was to secure another six-year term. Putin had warned Ukraine and the West that Russia would not hesitate to utilize its nuclear arsenal, if necessary, to defend the territorial integrity of Russia (including its-annexed Ukrainian regions) from renewed NATO-backed Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Furthermore, he has cited Russia’s security doctrine and laws that give him the licence to use nukes, a stand that’s backed by Putin’s longtime ally and former Russian President and Deputy Chairman of their Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev. He said that Russian laws grant Moscow complete leeway to protect what it would consider by law as Russian territory. “Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self-defence”, Medvedev stated in a Telegram post, adding that “this is why these referendums are so feared in Kyivand the West”.
He further stated that no future Russian leader would be able to constitutionally reverse their outcome. Then Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during a news conference that Russia has “a doctrine for nuclear security which is an open document.”
In an interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he believes that Putin isn’t bluffing. “He wants to scare the whole world,” Zelenskyy said. “These are the first steps of his nuclear blackmail.” When asked whether he thought stability in Europe was possible with Putin in power, Zelenskyy replied: “No. I don’t have anything to add. My opinion is no. We have observed this over the years. We don’t see stability.”
According to SIPRI (the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) a think tank that tracks global nuclear stockpiles, Russia boasts the largest nuclear arsenal in the world with nearly 6,000 nuclear warheads. About 1,500 of them are currently deployed.
Diverse Opinions About the Nuclear Threat
“Why is Putin taking the risk? Because he himself had encouraged the lack of public attention to the war for several months initially, hoping for swift military gains. But his invasion has been stalled, leading to discontent in Russia and hence his threat to now use nukes, to give his countrymen a shot to their sagging morale.
When two years ago in 2022, Russian soldiers were making few gains, he ordered a mobilization; but he knew it could be fraught with serious discontent in society. So, he decided to order a partial mobilization, rather than a full one.
In The Long Run
Commentator, Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic “There’s a “crisis inside the military.” And so, “the Russian Army faces not just a logistical emergency or some tactical problems but also a collapse in morale. That’s why Putin needs more soldiers, and that’s why, as in Stalin’s time, the Russian state has now defined ‘voluntary surrender’ as a crime, as Russian soldiers (largely the conscripts), abandoned the front lines.
Under a law approved by the Russian Parliament… you can be sent to prison for up to 10 years. If you desert your guard post in Donetsk or Kherson (or change into civilian clothes and run away, as some Russian soldiers have done in the past few weeks).”
“Support for Putin is eroding – abroad, at home, and in the Army. Everything else he said, was nothing more than an attempt to halt that decline,” observed Applebaum.
‘It’s Not a Bluff’
Analysts say the Kremlin’s nuclear threat is a move to force Ukraine’s surrender. “It’s an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West: either Ukraine retreats or its nuclear war,” political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya opined in 2022.
It’s unclear how or whether the mobilisation would impact facts on the ground. The challenge of training, arming and sending 300,000 men to the front was enormous, especially since Russia has already deployed its most experienced soldiers. Even then, Russia made a few rare admissions of military losses in Ukraine. “Since the start of the military operation, almost nothing has gone according to plan,” Stanovaya said.
According to experts, it might be more beneficial to respond to a Russian nuclear assault in a more traditional military or diplomatic manner and to provide Ukraine with more potent weapons so that it can attack Russia.
The US may also provide Ukraine with NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD Anti-Missile Batteries, and ATACMS long-range Missiles that Ukraine forces might employ to launch attacks inside Russia.
This Russian mobilization is sparking protests in Russian cities, with fresh demonstrations. It is also opening splits in Europe about whether fighting-age Russian men fleeing in droves should be welcomed or turned away. For Ukrainian and Russian military planners, the clock is ticking, to make fighting more complicated.
Though it is a tricky question, NATO and the United States do not want to come across as being unprepared for an implicit nuclear threat. The options are difficult, and the West hasn’t made it clear how it would react to a tactical nuclear strike.
(This essay was first published in THE TRIBUNE on
16th March ‘04)
